Australian consumers continue to spend online, but they are becoming more selective about what they buy, when they buy it and how much they spend in each transaction.
Australia Post eCommerce data recorded $21.9 billion in online spending over one quarter, with 9.3 million households making an online purchase. Online marketplaces attracted $5.1 billion and accounted for 42 per cent of purchases, while food and liquor generated $4.4 billion and fashion accounted for $3.1 billion.
The strength of online spending shows that eCommerce remains an important part of Australian retail. However, the way consumers shop is changing.
Shoppers are comparing prices, waiting for promotions and looking for value before committing to a purchase. Nearly six in 10 consumers say they no longer buy products at full price, while 58 per cent enjoy waiting for major sales.
At the same time, the average online basket has fallen to $90. Consumers are still buying, but they are spreading their spending across smaller and more considered purchases.
For retailers and supply chain leaders, this creates a different operating challenge. Maintaining sales across smaller orders can increase the pressure on picking, packing, transport and last-mile delivery. Each transaction must be fulfilled efficiently enough to protect margins while still meeting customer expectations.
Demand is becoming harder to predict
Large sales events can concentrate demand into short periods. Shoppers who delay purchases until discounts appear may create sharp increases in order volumes, followed by quieter trading periods.
This makes accurate demand planning more important. Retailers need enough stock and fulfilment capacity to manage promotional peaks without carrying excess inventory once the event ends.
Historical sales data alone may not provide a complete picture. Planning teams also need to consider promotional timing, price sensitivity, marketplace activity and changing demand across product categories.
The growth of online marketplaces adds another layer of complexity. These platforms give consumers more options and make price comparisons easier. They can also increase the pressure on retailers to maintain product availability, competitive prices and dependable delivery.
Retailers that sell through several channels need a clear view of inventory across marketplaces, websites, stores and distribution centres. Without that visibility, businesses risk overselling products, splitting stock inefficiently or disappointing customers with inaccurate availability information.
Smaller purchases still create fulfilment costs
A lower basket value does not necessarily mean a simpler fulfilment task.
Each order still requires payment processing, inventory allocation, picking, packing, dispatch and delivery. When consumers place more frequent but smaller orders, the handling and transport cost attached to each dollar of revenue can rise.
This places greater importance on warehouse productivity, packaging decisions and delivery options.
Retailers may need to review whether their minimum-spend thresholds, free-delivery offers and returns policies remain commercially sustainable. They may also need to improve order consolidation and give customers practical alternatives such as collection points, parcel lockers or click and collect.
The goal is not simply to reduce cost. Fulfilment choices must remain convenient for customers.
A slow, unclear or unreliable delivery experience can undermine the value offered through competitive pricing. Consumers may wait for a discount, but they still expect the order to arrive accurately and when promised.
Affordable purchases remain resilient
Consumers under financial pressure often reduce spending on expensive discretionary products while continuing to buy smaller, affordable items. This behaviour is sometimes described as the “lipstick effect”.
For supply chain teams, this can shift demand between categories rather than remove it altogether.
Retailers may see slower movement in high-value products while lower-cost items continue to sell. Inventory plans must reflect this change. Carrying the wrong mix can tie up working capital and leave businesses with stock that is difficult to move without further discounting.
Category-level demand signals therefore matter. A broad increase in online spending does not mean every product, price point or customer group is behaving in the same way.
Generational spending patterns can also affect product demand and channel use. Australia Post’s figures showed millennials contributing the largest share of online spending, followed by Generation X and Generation Z. Older shoppers recorded the strongest rate of spending growth over the measured period.
These differences can help retailers decide where to hold stock, which delivery services to offer and how to prepare for demand across customer groups.
Reliability becomes a point of difference
Price may attract a customer, but fulfilment can determine whether that customer returns.
Consumers expect retailers to provide accurate stock information, a simple checkout, clear delivery choices and reliable updates. They also expect orders to arrive in good condition and within the promised window.
Retailers therefore need close coordination between marketing, sales, inventory, warehouse operations, carriers and customer service.
A promotion should not be planned in isolation from the supply chain expected to support it. Before launching a major sale, businesses need to understand:
- how much inventory is available
- where that inventory is located;
- how many orders the warehouse can process;
- whether carriers have enough capacity;
- how delivery delays will be communicated;
- how returns will be handled.
When these functions are disconnected, strong demand can quickly become an operational problem.
When they work together, the supply chain can turn a promotional sale into a reliable customer experience.
The lesson for retail supply chains
Online retail remains resilient, but growth alone does not guarantee profitability.
More deliberate shoppers, smaller baskets and greater dependence on promotions are changing the economics of eCommerce. Retailers must manage more than the volume of sales. They must understand when demand will appear, what customers will buy and how each order can be fulfilled at a sustainable cost.
The strongest operators will be those that connect customer behaviour with inventory and fulfilment decisions.
That means improving demand visibility, preparing for concentrated sales periods, controlling the cost of small orders and delivering consistently across every channel.
Consumers are watching every dollar. Retail supply chains need to be just as precise.
Read also: Meeting Consumer Expectations in Retail Supply Chain
