Geopolitical activity has always had the power to redraw trade routes. But what’s occurred in the Strait of Hormuz of recent times is a reminder of just how fast that can happen, and how exposed operators are when their data doesn’t keep pace.
Since the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran began on 28 February, the strait has been mostly closed to global commercial shipping. Al Jazeera recently reported that traffic through the strait has plunged more than 95%, with just 21 tankers using the route since hostilities began, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the conflict. Oil prices have surged above $100 USD per barrel – an increase of more than 40% on pre-war levels – and according to CNBC, around 400 vessels are now waiting in the Gulf of Oman.
A chokepoint the world depends on
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most utilised maritime corridors on the planet. Around 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily – roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption and more than a quarter of all seaborne oil trade, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It also carries about one-fifth of global LNG shipments, making it central to energy supply chains far beyond the Gulf region.
When that corridor closes, even partially, fuel costs climb, pushing up bunker charges across ocean freight. War-risk insurance premiums spike, making vessel operations in the region significantly more expensive for many owners. Carriers reroute or slow steam, pulling effective capacity out of the global system, and as available capacity tightens, freight rates rise.
During the 2024-25 Red Sea disruption, security incidents forced vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, and Asia-Europe transit times stretched by 10-14 days, causing freight rates on key routes to surge dramatically. Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which sits at the heart of global energy supply, has the potential to affect trade on a far broader scale.
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The companies that navigate disruptions well are the ones that treat intelligence as a live function. When conditions change this fast, the gap between current information and outdated information translates directly into cost for operators.
Who gets through?
Access to the strait is now being determined by flag state and ownership nationality. Iran has, in limited cases, permitted ships from China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey to transit – while Western-affiliated vessels remain effectively barred. Tehran has described the strait as ‘open, but closed to our enemies’. What that means in practice is that access has become negotiated, unpredictable, and dependent on factors external to cargo type or route efficiency.
Operators have attempted workarounds. Dozens of vessels have been broadcasting AIS signals referencing Chinese ownership or crew presence while operating in the Gulf, in what maritime intelligence firm Windward has described as a possible ‘informal access filter’. But the tactic has proven unreliable – a China-linked vessel broadcasting ‘China Owner’ was struck by shrapnel on 12 March, which has since deterred further Chinese transits (CNBC).
Attacks on vessels have followed no discernible pattern, targeting ships across a broad range of nationalities and operator types. For those trying to plan any transit, that randomness is the problem.
Intelligence as an operational tool for global disruption
This unpredictable nature of events is why live freight intelligence has become a core operational function. The ability to model alternative routes quickly, monitor live rate movements, assess carrier capacity across options, and adjust bookings dynamically determines whether a team is managing disruption, or being managed by it.
Access to the right data at the right moment is what separates a confident decision from a guess. In a market this fast-moving, the teams that can act on current intelligence are the ones protecting their supply chains.
Modern freight platforms make this possible by consolidating scheduling, tracking, market pricing, and emissions data into a single interface. What used to require multiple subscriptions, manual research, and institutional knowledge built over years is now accessible in real time. That shift matters when decisions need to be made at pace.
The supply chains that adapt will pull ahead
The Strait of Hormuz will eventually reopen to broader commercial traffic. But the conditions that created this disruption – geopolitical instability, energy market sensitivity, the vulnerability of concentrated trade corridors – are not going away.
The operators who build intelligence capability into their operations now, rather than waiting for the next disruption to force the issue, will be better placed for whatever comes next. In freight, the advantage goes to those who know what’s happening before they have to react to it.
Archie is currently the CEO of Fluent Cargo.
An executive leader with 20 years in Supply Chain Management Technology solutions, he has consulted on a wide range of solutions such as WMS, TMS, OMS, Inventory Optimisation, Demand Forecasting and Advanced Transportation Visibility to a wide variety of Tier 1 to Tier 3 businesses including Retailers, Manufacturers, Distributors and Logistics Service Providers.
Fluent Cargo is an independent, mission-driven organization providing our clients with instant access to the information they need to plan their shipments better. We love schedules, port features, carrier information, port congestion, indicative shipment pricing, emissions monitoring, and other factors that influence shipment planning, be it on plane, ship, truck or train.
Archie is also currently the President of the VIC/TAS charter of the Supply Chain and Logistics Association of Australia. The SCLAA’s mission is to connect supply chain professionals and partners to foster tomorrow’s growth opportunities and to support the advancement of the supply chain industry by championing collaboration, innovation and success.
